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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 23 March 15
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE: GROWTH +5% - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Sunday, 22 March 15
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO RISE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this week as all the segments increased after many weeks of weak trend.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ...
Friday, 20 March 15
HARD COAL MARKET 2014: DESPITE THE ENERGY TURNAROUND, HARD COAL IMPORTS TO GERMANY RISE BY MORE THAN 6% (PART 1)
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Friday, 20 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 5.9% INCREASE WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 19 March 15
HANDY: INDO COAL CARGOS DESTINED FOR INDIA BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $ 7-8K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Handy and Supra market has had a week with mixed signals. Although we see more activity in both hemispheres the rates are only up about ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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