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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
Friday, 13 March 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.3% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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