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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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