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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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Showing 16 to 20 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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