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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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Showing 2826 to 2830 news of total 6871 |
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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