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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- The University of Queensland
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