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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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