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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 06 September 15
AUTOMATION AND TECHNOLOGY IS CERTAINLY PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR IMPROVING PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY TO MAKE THE MINE OPERATIONS MORE PROFITABLE, HOWEVER............ - LUKE JALSEVAC
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Luke Jalsevac, Director, Busines ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX ROSE 10.83 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI, the Baltic exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, declined o ...
Saturday, 05 September 15
DRY BULK MARKET MAY SUFFER NOW, BUT IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY THANKS TO A LIMITED FUTURE FLEET GROWTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The slow increase of dry bulk tonnage growth this year could turn into a solid indicator of the market’s future prospects. According to a rec ...
Friday, 04 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE W/E AUGUST 29, UP SLIGHTLY; FALL 4.5 PERCENT Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.7 million shor ...
Friday, 04 September 15
GOVERNORS WILL HAVE THE POWER TO REVOKE MINERS' PERMITS: ENERGY MINISTRY - JG
Starting Oct. 1, Indonesia's governors will lawfully become "executors" in revoking the licenses of miners that fail to secure a &quo ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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