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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
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Showing 2816 to 2820 news of total 6871 |
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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