We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Having experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hope ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES LED A DECLINE IN INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com: Slower growth in world coal demand particularly China and lower international coal prices have led to a decline in Indonesian coal pr ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
HIGHER TAXES COULD LEAD GREEK SHIP OWNERS OUT OF THE COUNTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
A potential taxation overhaul of the shipping industry in Hellas, which could see the loss of particular tax benefits for ship owners, could lead t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
|
|
|
Showing 2811 to 2815 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
