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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 20 September 15
BALTIC CAPE INDEX ROSE 66.52 PER CENT AND STAND NOW AT 1995 POINTS
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose 17.35 per cent week over week to 960 points on Friday mainly driven by the Capesize segment. The Cape ...
Friday, 18 September 15
SHIPPING AND THE FED RATE DECISION: FINANCING COSTS COULD RISE EVEN HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Regardless of the FED’s decision to raise rates, shipping stands to be influenced by the decision. Shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted this w ...
Friday, 18 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 6.7 PER CENT W-W: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
COALSPOT HAS LAUNCHED NEW THERMAL COAL INDICES FOR INDONESIAN COAL
COALspot.com has today launched real-time CS (i) Coal Indices.
The Indices represents 3800 kcal/kg GAR, 4200 kcal/kg GAR, 5000 kcal/kg GAR a ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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