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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 15 March 16
ADARO ENERGY LOWERED ITS COAL CASH COST BY 16% TO US$ 27.98 PER TONE IN 2015
Difficult Coal Market Condition Persists in 2015, Adaro Lowers Costs, Reduces Capital Spending and Maintains Solid Liquidity.
PT Adaro E ...
Monday, 14 March 16
THE CS 50 INDEX ROSE $0.16 OR, 0.41% TO $38.82 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.41 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 14 March 16
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE CONTINUED TO ROSE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rise this week helped by higher rates for pa ...
Saturday, 12 March 16
PLN, COAL COMPANIES IN TALKS ABOUT PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Following a study that predicted that Indonesia would struggle to provide coal for its power stations in the near future, the government will facil ...
Friday, 11 March 16
ADANI GLOBAL BAGS 0.26 MILLION TONS OF COAL CONTRACT FROM LANKA COAL COMPANY
COALspot.com: Lanka Coal Company (Private) Limited, Sri Lanka has awarded 260,000 +/- 10% tons of Power plant 6300 GAR calorific value coal to Adan ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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