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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 23 March 16
THE PANAMA CANAL - WILL THE MELTING OF POLAR ICE CAPS CREATE RIVAL NAVIGATIONAL WATERWAYS THROUGH THE ARCTIC? - INTERMODAL
The Panama Canal, 102 years after its initial opening, is now about to have its expansion completed with a cost of USD5.25 Billion. It is a project ...
Tuesday, 22 March 16
FOUR NEW MARKET MEMBERS HAVE JOINED GLOBALCOAL
globalCOAL® announced yesterday that four new Market Members have joined its international trading community.
Ferrocadia DMCC is an intern ...
Monday, 21 March 16
INDONESIAN 4200 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE $0.12 OR, 0.44% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDEX CLOASED AT $27.19 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.21 percent week over week to averaging $38.90 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 21 March 16
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX ROSE SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK; BCI UP 11.93%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued rose this week helped by higher rates for Cape ...
Friday, 18 March 16
OUTLOOK ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR TURNS NEGATIVE AS SUPPLY-DEMAND GAP WIDENS AND EBITDA DECLINES - MOODY'S
Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) has changed its outlook on the global shipping sector to negative as it expects supply growth to ou ...
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Showing 2511 to 2515 news of total 6871 |
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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