We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 18 March 16
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LITTLE TO LOOK FORWARD TO FROM CHINA AT THE MOMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s rebound is long overdue, but when it comes, it won’t be because of China’s strong demand for commodities, o ...
Friday, 18 March 16
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES SLIGHTLY DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 March 16
THE PANAMAX MARKET SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOPPISH THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There are challenging days with rates or less unchanged from last week; West Australia to China still below US$ 3 pmt, and Tuarao to China i ...
Wednesday, 16 March 16
OIL SUPPLY OUTPACES DEMAND ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AND BILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL ARE BEING STORED RATHER THAN CONSUMED - CHRISTOPHER
Oil producers have turned to the concept of limiting their output to January levels as a certain form of action to boost prices that have fallen mo ...
Tuesday, 15 March 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.78 MMT OF COAL IN FEBRUARY 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped AU$1,110.5 mi ...
|
|
|
Showing 2516 to 2520 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
