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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
Monday, 07 March 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE $0.05 A TON WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.66 per ton on this past Friday, ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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