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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 11 March 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN BY 0.5 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.6 million shor ...
Friday, 11 March 16
FORTESCUE'S MOU WITH VALE COULD STRENGTHEN ITS BUSINESS PROFILE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that Australia-based Fortescue Metals Group Limited's (BB+/Negative) memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Br ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY PLAN COULD BE POSITIVE FOR SHIPPING, BUT TARGETS SEEM RATHER AMBITIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China set out its new policy plan during the course of the past weekend, but it seems to have set some very ambitious goals, which could be difficu ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 23% IN 2015, AS COAL IMPORTS REMAINED STEADY
COALspot.com: The United States remains a net exporter of coal, exporting 74.0 million short tons (MMst) and importing 11 MMst in 2015.
Accord ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
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Showing 2526 to 2530 news of total 6871 |
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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