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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 25 March 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET WILL GROW BY 1.3% DURING 2016 - BIMCO | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market will keep on suffering, at least until the start of 2017 and possibly well after that, should the current balance of supply and ...
Friday, 25 March 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 9.1% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
PERSISTENT OVERCAPACITY TO PROLONG CHINA'S COAL SECTOR DOWNTURN - FITCH
China's coal sector is likely to remain under pressure in the short to medium term as structural weaknesses in demand and overcapacity persist, ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
NEWBUILDINGS' PRICES HAVE STARTED TO COME DOWN - ALLIED | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuildings’ prices have started to come down, as demand has remained subdued for quite some time now. In its latest weekly report, shipbrok ...
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Showing 2506 to 2510 news of total 6871 |
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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