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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE INDONESIAN DRAFT NEW MINING LAW - AMENDMENTS TO THE 2009 MINING LAW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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