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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 08 August 16
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE, TRACKING RATES FOR SHIPS CARRYING DRY BULK COMMODITIES SLIDE SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Panamax and Supramax segments ending in ...
Monday, 08 August 16
ARE EXPENSES INCURRED DURING NEGOTIATION OF A PIRATE RANSOM RECOVERABLE IN GENERAL AVERAGE? - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Facts
The laden chemical tanker LONGCHAMP was transiting the Gulf of Aden on passage to Vietnam. The ship was subject t ...
Saturday, 06 August 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING CHARTER RATES TO RISE ON UNEXPECTED DEMAND GROWTH - DREWRY
Increasing trade and contracting supply will support a recovery in charter rates on major dry bulk shipping routes, with the prospect of China impo ...
Friday, 05 August 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL OUTPUT TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 16.1 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JULY 30 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 August 16
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE REMAINING AT DEPRESSING LEVELS DUE TO LACK OF FRESH CARGOES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week has been one of the slowest for some time with rates under pressure in most areas.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroke ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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