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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 23 August 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX CLIMB 15.96% YEAR TO DATE - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 4200 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.65 % week over week to averaging $31.46 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) ...
Tuesday, 23 August 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 250K OF 5,700 KCAL/KG NAR COAL FOR Q4' 16
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for total 250,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for ...
Monday, 22 August 16
INDONESIA'S CS 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX, ROSE TO A 57-WEEKS HIGH TO TOP $43.47 A TON
COALspot.com: Indonesia’s CS 5000 GAR thermal coal index, rose to a 57-weeks high to top $US43. 47 a ton in the latest week, extending a 18-w ...
Monday, 22 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY THIS PAST WEEK; CAPE INDEX DECLINE 5.38%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 19 August 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 421.6 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
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Showing 2311 to 2315 news of total 6871 |
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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