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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 09 August 16
CS50 COAL INDEX HITS NEW FIFTY-WEEKS HIGH
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.78% week over week to averaging $41.85 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND WORLD TRADE ON THE DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS - VDKI
Hard coal production and world trade on the decline for the first time in years – not a harbinger of a global energy turnaround
Worldwid ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
BREXIT, BRITANNIA AND THE WAVES - TREVOR CROWE, CLARKSON RESEARCH
This week, the Bank of England put into place its action plan following the UK referendum on 23rd June, which indicated the British population&rsqu ...
Monday, 08 August 16
INDONESIA'S DRAFT MINING LAW HINTS AT FUTURE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
Monday, 08 August 16
THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT HAS IMPOSED A $15 A TON DUTY ON POWER PLANT COAL IMPORTS - MEDIA
COALspot.com: The Turkish government has imposed a US$15 per ton duty on thermal coal imports for use in its power sector.
According to media ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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