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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 18 August 16
CAPESIZE: AN EXTREMELY VOLATILE LAST WEEK, WHERE THE MAIN DRIVER HAS BEEN THE WEST AUSTRALIA MARKET
Supramax
The week has held up. After the most of the world is back at work there is some optimism again in the market. The Far East volume has in ...
Tuesday, 16 August 16
WEEKLY CS42 COAL INDEX SOARS 14.08% YEAR TO DATE AMID HIGH DEMAND
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 2.37% week over week to averaging $42.84 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 15 August 16
DRY BULK: 2017 COULD MARK THE START OF LOWER SHIP DELIVERIES HELPING TONNAGE SUPPLY ISSUES IN THE MARKET, SAYS SHIPOWNER - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk owner Pacific Basin, mainly active in the Handysize and Supramax trades appeared optimistic in its analysis of the prospects of the dry bu ...
Monday, 15 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES RALLYING; COAL OUTPUT REMAINS FLAT
COALspot.com: Global thermal coal prices, including Indonesian coal prices have risen sharply due to jump in imports from China as it curbs domesti ...
Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
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Showing 2316 to 2320 news of total 6871 |
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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