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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 03 November 16
CAPESIZE: BRAZIL/CHINA RATES MOVED TO THE $11 PMT LEVEL; WEST AUSTRALIA/CHINA ROUTE MOVED UP CLOSE TO MID $5 PMT LEVEL - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Atlantic we see a bit more activity than in the eastern hemisphere, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. Fhauls via Black ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
A week before the U.S. presidential election, everyone is eager to see the socio-political effects that the result of these elections will have. As ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIP OPERATING COSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN BOTH 2016 AND 2017 - MOORE STEPHENS
Vessel operating costs are expected to rise in both 2016 and 2017. Repairs and maintenance and spares are the cost categories which are likely to i ...
Tuesday, 01 November 16
PANAMAX : A FAIR AMOUNT OF SIDEWAYS SHIPPING IN RATES - ALLIED SHIPPING
Capesize
A very sluggish start to the week, with rates dropping considerably as all optimism seems to have evaporated over the weekend. According ...
Tuesday, 01 November 16
IMPROVEMENT ON THE DEMAND SIDE ONLY BUT THE SUPPLY SIDE IS WORSE OFF - BIMCO
Back in May, BIMCO disclosed a projected “road to recovery” for the dry bulk shipping industry. The main message back then on what the ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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