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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 07 November 16
HANDYSIZE: THE ASIAN INDICES RECORDED A GRADUAL DROP EVERY DAY - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A rumour-fuelled market this week but essentially rates a touch firmer and owners cautiously optimistic. The flotilla of vessels heading ...
Monday, 07 November 16
THE SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WERE RATING AT AROUND $7500-8000 A DAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose slightly and ending in a positive note this past wee ...
Friday, 04 November 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
Friday, 04 November 16
INDONESIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ARE UNANIMOUSLY AFFIRMED
Press Release: October 20-21, 2016 Indonesia Infrastructure Summit (IIC) opened at the Hyatt Hotel in Jakarta The theme of the meeting was "Pr ...
Thursday, 03 November 16
THE INDEX BASED COAL SALES & PURCHASE STRATEGY MAKES MORE EFFICIENT, SAYS 55.17% END-USERS
Considering the current coal market condition, the Index based coal sales & purchase strategy make more efficient was deemed the winner by 57.0 ...
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Showing 2226 to 2230 news of total 6871 |
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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