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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 10 November 16
PANAMAX: NO TRUMP INFLUENCE YET, AND THE MARKET IS HEADING NORTH - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Pacific Supra market still soft and falling this week, although seems to be in a somewhat slower pace compared to last week. According t ...
Wednesday, 09 November 16
SINGAPORE'S SGX COMPLETES ACQUISITION OF LONDON'S BALTIC EXCHANGE
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange Limited and The Baltic Exchange Limited together announced that the acquisition of the Baltic Exchange by SGX has ...
Wednesday, 09 November 16
SUPRAMAX: 50% INCREASE ON AVERAGE SINCE THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Last week was an interesting one for the tanker market, which following the explosion of the gas pipeline in Alabama witnessed a spike in Atlantic ...
Tuesday, 08 November 16
S.KOREA'S KOMIPO ISSUES TENDER TO BUY 390K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR JAN-FEB 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Monday, 07 November 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ROSE 59.57 PER CENT YEAR TO MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2013. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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