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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 31 October 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL ROSE 5.56% WEEK OVER WEEK - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: The price for thermal coal has recovered substantially since April 2016. The China’s new policy on its domestic coal miners, th ...
Friday, 28 October 16
STEAM COAL IMPORTS: CHINA AND INDIA'S ROLE REVERSALS - BEN TRIMMEL
While a sharp decline in European imports is a key driver of the expected fall in steam coal trade this year, China and India remain leading actors ...
Friday, 28 October 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE DURING THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 22 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 27 October 16
73.08 PERCENT OF COAL PRODUCERS PREDICTED INDIA WILL NOT STOP COAL IMPORTS IN 2 TO 3 YEARS - POLL
COALspot released its weekly opinion poll "How likely do you think India will STOP thermal coal imports in 2-3 years?" this Monday.
...
Thursday, 27 October 16
PANAMAX: FIRM ATLANTIC; TOPPISH PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The trend from last week is passed on. ECSA still strong with Supras from N Brazil to Med fixed at $9,000 to $9,500 daily.
Accordin ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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