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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 26 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
If the finale of a thriller movie finds the leading actor successfully surviving after all the sacrifices he has made, the audience presumes this t ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES MARCH HIGHER CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
THINGS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO IMPROVE AS CORRECTIONS ARE MADE - ALLIED
It seems as though left, right and centre, all we see nowadays is the word “restructuring”.
There is restructuring amongst bankers ...
Monday, 24 October 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 0.78 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Monday, 24 October 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.2% TO 16 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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