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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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