We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 23 December 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 711.1 MMST; DOWN 18.5% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 December 16
INDONESIA LACK OF EXPORT TO INDIA THIS WEEK - FERNLEYS
Supramax
While the Atlantic is keeping up with rates, the Pacific has been weaker says Astrup Fernley.
According to Astrup Fernley, backhaul ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
THE SUPREME COURT DECISION IN OW BUNKERS - WHEN A SALE OF GOODS IS NOT A SALE OF GOODS - LEON ALEXANDER, CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In May 2016 the Supreme Court of England & Wales gave judgment in an OW Bunkers test case entitled "Res Cogitans ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
CLEANING THE OCEANS FROM PLASTIC - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2016 is coming to a close and it finds us in preparation for the 2017 enforcement of the Ballast Water Treatment Systems. We naturally are in thoug ...
Tuesday, 20 December 16
TRADE HAS FELT ITS BUMPS AND SHAKES THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trade has felt its bumps and shakes this year, as growing populist protectionist and nationalist movements in the Western world start to take hold. ...
|
|
|
Showing 2171 to 2175 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
