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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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