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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 2% IN 2017 - EIA
U.S. Coal production in November 2016 was 70.7 million short tons (MMst), the third time this year monthly production exceeded 70 MMst, says EIA.
...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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