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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 07 December 16
IT'S BEEN YET ANOTHER TURBULENT COUPLE OF DAYS..... - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It’s been yet another turbulent couple of days, with a significant number of news headlines shaking up markets.
On Friday we had & ...
Monday, 05 December 16
INDIAN HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2012, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to Commodore Research, the first eleven months of this year have seen India’s overall electricity production total approximately 1. ...
Monday, 05 December 16
THE DECEMBER 2016 HBA HITS TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2012
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2012. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 05 December 16
BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX UP 5.98%; BALTIC CAPE INDEX FELL 2.52% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally slightly continues this past week and ending on a s ...
Sunday, 04 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 11.9% W/E 26 NOV; UP 1.4% Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million short ton ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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