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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 15 March 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
Over the past two weeks, the Dry Baltic Index has been on an upward trend, breaking the 1000 point mark and creating a positive sentiment for the u ...
Tuesday, 14 March 17
ORDERBOOK-TO-FEET RATIO DECREASING; THE FREIGHT MARKET IMPROVING
It seems as though the renewed optimism that has arisen from the recent upward trends being noted in the freight market, the dry bulk market has be ...
Monday, 13 March 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 11.563 MILLION TONS COAL IN FEBRUARY 2017; DECLINED 12.19 PERCENT M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,4 ...
Monday, 13 March 17
INDO - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
Friday, 10 March 17
ESTIMATED U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT WEEK ENDED MARCH 4, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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