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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 10 March 17
THE 5TH PHILIPPINES POWER AND ELECTRICITY WEEK RETURNS WITH A UNIQUE FOCUS IN 2017
5th Annual Philippines Power & Electricity
18-21 July 2017
Solaire Resort & Casino,Manila, Philippines
http://www.philippinespowe ...
Thursday, 09 March 17
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE DROPPED FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH IN MARCH, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWED
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price dropped for a fourth straight month in March, government data showed. The ...
Wednesday, 08 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET TODAY PROVIDES MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO LAST YEAR - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
So what's all the fuss about? During the past five months SnP activity has being surging exponentially in the dry bulk sector. Buyers are looki ...
Monday, 06 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO FIRM UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firm up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk com ...
Friday, 03 March 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 15.7 MMST; DECLINE 6.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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Showing 2106 to 2110 news of total 6871 |
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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