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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 24 March 17
U.S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE DECLINE 4.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 23 March 17
CAPESIZE: TAKING A BREATHER AFTER RALLYING - BUT OUTLOOK FOR WEEKS TO COME NOT SCARY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Pacific the market seems somewhat slower this week, although healthy rates still being achieved said Fearnleys in its latest week ...
Thursday, 23 March 17
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 4.77 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR ITS BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 2,090,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
Wednesday, 22 March 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS UNDOUBTEDLY REBOUNDED SINCE THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The Dry Bulk market has undoubtedly rebounded since the same period last year and currently enjoys healthier freight rates. The positive reversal i ...
Tuesday, 21 March 17
DESPITE THE CHALLENGING MARKET SITUATION IN 2016 THE DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS ACHIEVED A NET PROFIT OF US$37 MILLION
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the period ended December 31, 2016.
Despite challenging marke ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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