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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 02 March 17
ULTRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL ROUNDS IS BEING FIXED AT AROUND MID 11K BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Holiday mode within Atlantic i.e. very few movements but rates remained still positive, mostly in the USG region where tight tonnage sup ...
Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodit ...
Tuesday, 28 February 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.39% LESS COAL IN JANUARY; TRADE VALUE UP 11.87% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,625.6 M ...
Monday, 27 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRMED UP THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 57.64% W/W
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commod ...
Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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