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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 21 March 17
JAPAN'S RENEWED COMMITMENT TO COAL - BENJAMIN SPORTON
Japan is one of the largest economies in the world, and has long been a major consumer and importer of energy and a leader in energy technology dev ...
Monday, 20 March 17
IS THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY STILL ON TRACK FOR PROFITABILITY IN 2019? - PETER SAND
The industry remains well on target for profitable freight rates in 2019! This relies however, on the projected fleet supply growth rate of 0% in 2 ...
Friday, 17 March 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT VOLUME SLIDES 6.5 PERCENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CHINA IMPOSING TOUGHER CONTROLS ON LOW-QUALITY COAL IMPORTS
China is ramping up controls on imports of low-quality coal due to concerns about smog and overcapacity in the world’s top coal consumer, a g ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CAPESIZE: SHOWING STRENGTH; PANAMAX: VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The Atlantic market faced less activity from the USG whereas at the Cont tonnage seemed to tighten up with more cargoes emerging. Despit ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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