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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 30 March 17
PANAMAX : ACTIVITY IN THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week we were looking at prolonged activity from ECSA, mostly with grain cargoes to Far East and SE Asia, where Ultras to SE Asia fi ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
THE ROLE OF COAL IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY OF THE EU-28: HANS-WILHELM SCHIFFER
The European Union (EU-28) is one of the largest economies in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of €14,635 billion in 2015. It ha ...
Wednesday, 29 March 17
MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
Shipowners will always look for market signals in order to gauge market perception and decide upon which strategy to follow next. And while owners ...
Monday, 27 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO FIRM WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
Friday, 24 March 17
ADARO INDONESIA'S COAL SALES VOLUME INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 54.1 MILLION TONES IN 2016
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Indonesia, Indonesia’s second largest coal miner’s sales volume increased slightly to 54.1 million tones (Mt) i ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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