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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 04 May 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS LEVELS WITH DELIVERY CHINA IS TRADING AROUND LOW $6K, TRIP BACK TO CHINA
Supramax
The short week brought weaker rates across all routes. Supras from USG to Japan were fixed around $19-20 k daily and from ECSA to ECI $1 ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MALAYSIA SEEMS AS BIGGEST ADARO COAL IMPORTER IN Q1' 17
COALspot.com: In 1Q17, 30% of Adaro's sales went to Indonesia, the data from unaudited consolidated financial statement shows.
Malaysia ca ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The overall performance of each sector within the edible oil markets has remained poor for the past weeks. Apart from the veg oil exports fro ...
Tuesday, 02 May 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUE TO SLUMP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, as all segments except Handy Size show a negative downward trend.
The Balt ...
Friday, 28 April 17
U.S PRODUCED LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14 million short tons ( ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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