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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 28 April 17
DELTA DUNIA RECORDED $24 MILLION NET PROFIT FOR FIRST QUARTER OF 2017; UP 700% Y/Y
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2017 yesterday. According to the ...
Thursday, 27 April 17
PACIFIC IS SOFTENING WITH MORE TONNAGE OPENING AND LESS COAL ORDERS AROUND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Relatively slow week, with both basins showing signs of cooling down. Although grain cargoes out ECSA and ECCA on Ultras still delivered ...
Wednesday, 26 April 17
IRON ORE PRICES HAVE BEEN ON A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Iron ore prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the last month. Prices started the year on a very positive note, surging up to their highest ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
FIONA POUNDS: VALID TENDER OF NOTICE OF READINESS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the recent English High Court case of MV Arundel Castle1, the Judge ruled that a vessel, that could not immediately pr ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Over the weekend we witnessed a second win over the rising populism that has become present in global politics since last summer, Allied shipping s ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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