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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 24 April 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS DOWN WEEK OVER WEEK EXCEPT FOR HANDYSIZE SEGMENT
COALspot.com: The Freight market was fell, week over a week as all segments show a negative downward trend except Handy Size segment this past week ...
Friday, 21 April 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE UP, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
SHIPPING POOLS: DON'T JUST DIVE IN - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping pools can be an attractive option for ship owners and operators, particularly in difficult markets and during periods of economic uncertai ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL ON ITS UPWARD MOMENTUM - ALLIED SHIPPING
Having gone through the first quarter of the year and with the Easter break having no come and gone, it seems as though the dry bulk market is stil ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
CHINA'S IMPORT OF IRON ORE TO PROPEL DRY BULK SHIPPING DEMAND IN 2017 - PETER SAND
China's import of iron ore will continue to be a key driver for the demand growth in 2017 for the dry bulk shipping industry, alongside shippin ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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