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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - w ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 0.99 PERCENT LESS COAL IN APRIL 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,636.2 ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market slightly up this past week, as BDI and Cape shows a positive trend week over week.
The Baltic Exchange, track ...
Friday, 12 May 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AGAIN WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million short tons ...
Friday, 12 May 17
SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET
Supramax
In the Atlantic, only USG were showing some improvement, where pet-coke cargoes to India was fixed in the range of 19-23k daily and to C ...
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Showing 2046 to 2050 news of total 6871 |
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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