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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in ...
Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that t ...
Monday, 08 May 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose in May, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian therm ...
Monday, 08 May 17
OCEAN BULK CARGO RATES FALL FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, with all segments show a negative downward trend week over week.
The Balti ...
Monday, 08 May 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE DOWN - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
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Showing 2051 to 2055 news of total 6871 |
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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