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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 05 December 17
THE COKING AND THERMAL COAL RECORDING SMALL GAINS - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were higher, with both coking and thermal coal recording small gains, said Daniel Hynes Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ in his late ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 30 November 17
CONTEMPLATING COAL'S CONTROVERSY AT COP23 - BENJAMIN SPORTON
Representing the coal industry at climate talks is never going to be an easy proposition. For many people, coal and climate action are incompatible ...
Wednesday, 29 November 17
THE LAST DAYS OF COAL? - ALIBRA SHIPPING
At least 15 countries have joined an international alliance to phase out coal use for power generation before 2030.
Britain, Canada, Denmark, ...
Wednesday, 29 November 17
THERMAL COAL MARKETS WERE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUBDUED - DANIEL HYNES, ANZ
Coal prices were stronger, led by gains in coking coal. Premium hard coking coal jumped above USD200/t for the first time in two months, said Danie ...
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Showing 1861 to 1865 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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