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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 13 December 17
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL LOOKED RELATIVELY ROBUST - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were a touch higher. Demand for thermal coal looked relatively robust, after reports continued to surface that Chinese authorities have ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
As another year is coming to an end and much has been already written about the positive reversal in the dry bulk market, we think it is interestin ...
Monday, 11 December 17
INDIA CONSUMERS ARE SAID TO BE DESPERATELY SEEKING CARGOES - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were stronger, as strong demand outside China continues to spur buying said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acc ...
Monday, 11 December 17
CAPESIZE FFA MARKET LOOKING PROMISING MOVING FORWARD - FIS
Capesize
Another very promising day for the big ships as rates continued to firm in both oceans and the paper market ate into the backwardation s ...
Friday, 08 December 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 11.6 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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Showing 1851 to 1855 news of total 6871 |
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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