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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 07 December 17
SUPRAMAX: CHINA TO INDIA FIXING AT MID US$ 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
There has been quite some activity in the Atlantic basin this week, rates out of USG are still firm, trips to Emed gone through at low/m ...
Thursday, 07 December 17
THE ROLE OF COAL - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH - BENJAMIN SPORTON, WCA
At the climate talks in Bonn, a global alliance to phase out coal was launched. This, along with other rhetoric about developments in the energy se ...
Wednesday, 06 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS VASILEIOU
Moving towards the end of 2017, we are facing a relatively slack period of business in the ship repair sector. The repair market has already mature ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
DOES BITCOIN HAVE A FUTURE IN SHIPPING? - ALIBRA SHIPPING
Google now receives more search requests for Bitcoin than for Kim Kardashian, Beyoncé and Taylor Swift combined. This week, a shipping compa ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The cu ...
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Showing 1856 to 1860 news of total 6871 |
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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