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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 29 November 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
In line with most expectations for the end of this month, during the past days the Dry Bulk market realized a significant rebound that sent the BDI ...
Tuesday, 28 November 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS SHOWN A REMARKABLE RECOVERY THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Dry Bulk market has shown a remarkable recovery this year with the average earnings having increased by around 63% this year so far compared to ...
Friday, 24 November 17
U.S. PRODUCED 14.9 MMST FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOV 18; UP 0.9% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 November 17
PANAMAX: ANOTHER SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK; DECREASING FREIGHT RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start to the week. USG closed last week a bit tighter, and continued into the new week on a positive tone with little concluded, ...
Wednesday, 22 November 17
THERMAL COAL WAS FLAT AMID CONCERNS OF FURTHER GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN CHINA, SAYS DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were mixed. Thermal coal was flat amid concerns of further government intervention in China, said Daniel Hynes Senior Commodity Strateg ...
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Showing 1866 to 1870 news of total 6871 |
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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