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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 21 December 17
SUPRAMAX: IN THE MOST CHANCE, DO NOT EXPECT ANY DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE NEAR FUTURE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market reducing speed. Rates are dropping further for supras outbound USG on fronth, bkhaul is more stable i.e $25k/22k respectively say ...
Wednesday, 20 December 17
INDONESIAN HBA FELL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SIX MONTHS, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: HBA fell 0.80 per cent in December, marking the first fall for the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) since June 2017, the latest ...
Monday, 18 December 17
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2017 WERE 69 MMST; UP 68% M/M - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.5 million sho ...
Thursday, 14 December 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL TO CHINA AROUND LOW $10K DELIVERY SINGAPORE
Supramax
Atlantic basin kept its firm pace with charters still busy with covering pre-holiday requirements. Ultras got close to $20k for ordinary ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
REFINED COAL HAS MADE UP NEARLY ONE-FIFTH OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION SO FAR IN 2017 - EIA
The U.S. power sector consumption of coal is increasingly shifting to refined coal, even as coal-fired electricity generation decreases. Use of ref ...
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Showing 1846 to 1850 news of total 6871 |
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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