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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 22 December 17
COAL INDIA BOARD CLEARS THE WAY FOR SCHEME FOR HARNESSING AND ALLOCATING KOYALA (COAL) TRANSPARENTLY IN INDIA - PIB
The Coal India Limited (CIL) Board cleared the decks for signing of Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA), for supply of coal.
According to Press Inform ...
Friday, 22 December 17
WILL THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY BECOME PROFITABLE IN 2018? - PETER SAND, BIMCO
As the dry bulk fleet is already expected to grow at a pace that matches demand growth expected in 2019, focus must be on improving the fundamental ...
Friday, 22 December 17
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
COAL CONSUMPTION DROPS AS GAS AND RENEWABLES CHEW INTO TRADITIONAL MARKETS - BABS MCHUGH
"The share of coal in the global energy mix is forecast to decline from 27 per cent last year to 26 per cent in 2022"
Global demand ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
FUEL SHORTAGE TRIGGERS JUMP IN COAL PRICES - CHINA DAILY
China’s thermal coal prices jumped recently as natural gas shortages across the north spurred an unexpected resurgence in demand for coal-fir ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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