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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 04 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA WERE FIXED AT AROUND $8K DAILY; DOWN AROUND 27% WOW
Supramax
Q1 kicked off with an usual standby with all counterparts waiting for the market to take direction. Further holidays in East-Europe adde ...
Wednesday, 03 January 18
KOMIPO TO BUY 130K TONS OF MIN. 5700 NAR COAL FOR FEB 2018 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130k Metric Tons of min. 5700 NAR coal to be burnt a ...
Friday, 29 December 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED A$ 1.527 BILLION WORTH OF 12.65 MT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1527.6 M ...
Friday, 29 December 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE WEEK ENDING 23 DEC, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 27 December 17
SULPHUR EMISSIONS: THE OUTSTANDING CHALLENGES - UK P&I CLUB
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has been working to reduce the harmful impacts of shipping on the environment.
It adopted Annex ...
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Showing 1836 to 1840 news of total 6871 |
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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